Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 2?
Polymarket · 52d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.74
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
78%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
22%
Key Factors
- Consensus forecast of 18°C for April 2 at Madrid Barajas
- One outlier forecast of 17°C from easeweather
- Typical 1-day forecast error of ~1.5°C creates meaningful probability for adjacent bins
- Climatological average of 18-19°C for early April Madrid
- Resolution depends on exact Wunderground reading and bin definition
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total