Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on April 5?

“The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasted isolated light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms over Uttar Pradesh on April 5, which could cap maximum temperatures. The IMD bulletin on April 3 also noted that maximum temperatures could be normal to below normal in parts of the region.. While historical averages are higher, recent observations show temperatures can dip below forecasts. For example, on April 3, the observed temperature was approximately 35°C, despite a forecast of 38°C. This suggests that factors like cloud cover and rain, as forecasted for April 5, can lead to lower-than-expected highs..”

“Forecast Consensus vs. Narrow Bucket: Current forecasts (EaseWeather, Hindustan Times) predict a high of 37°C. The market requires the temperature to land in the exact 34°C bucket, which is a massive 3°C deviation from the 1-day forecast consensus.. The Sharpshooter Fallacy: The bull argues that rain will suppress the temperature to 'precisely 34°C.' Even if rain causes a forecast bust, the resulting high could just as easily be 32°C, 33°C, 35°C, or 36°C. The 34°C bucket represents only a tiny fraction of the left-tail probability distribution..”