Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on April 1?
Polymarket · 53d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.92
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
91%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
9%
Key Factors
- Average high on April 1 in Lucknow is ~35°C, making 34°C slightly below average but within normal range
- Recent March 2026 temperatures suggest warmer-than-average conditions, slightly reducing probability of 34°C
- This is a single 1°C bucket in what appears to be a multi-outcome market, inherently limiting probability
- No actual weather forecast for April 1 is available in the research, creating significant uncertainty
- Temperature variability (SD ~3-4°C) means 34°C is well within the plausible range but not the most likely single outcome
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total