Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on April 10?

Kalshi · 44d ago
RejectedBUY NO · $0.69
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

91%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Forecaster
8%
Bull
12%
Bear
8%
Bulls say
An April 3 forecast specifically predicted 30.39°C on April 10 with light rain, indicating weather models have been projecting a significant cooling event around that date. If rain is lighter than expected, the high could land closer to 33°C rather than 30°C, putting it squarely in the 33°C bucket.. Recent actuals show Lucknow hitting 33-34°C on April 6-7 due to thunderstorm activity, demonstrating that early April temperatures CAN reach the 33°C range when cloud cover and rain suppress heating. The forecast thunderstorm pattern extending through April 9 could easily carry cooling effects into April 10..
Bears say
The market description says it resolves to the 'temperature range that contains the highest temperature' — this is a discrete bucket system, not an exact match. The bull correctly notes this, but the key question is which bucket 33°C falls in and whether April 10 lands there. Most current forecasts (EaseWeather: 34°C sunny) point ABOVE the 33°C bucket, not within it.. The bull's core argument relies on an April 3 forecast of 30.39°C on April 10 with light rain. This is a 7-day-out forecast with notoriously high uncertainty (±3-5°C at that range). By April 7-8, updated forecasts show 34°C sunny conditions post-rain clearing — meaning the more recent, more accurate forecasts have already revised UPWARD past the 33°C range..

Full Debate

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