Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 8?

Polymarket · 48d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.88
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

88%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
12%
Key Factors
  • Multiple forecast models center on 21-22°C for April 8, making 20°C bucket a lower-tail outcome
  • Forecast uncertainty of 1-2°C at 3-day range means 20°C is plausible but not central
  • London City Airport station may differ slightly from general London forecasts
  • Bucket definition matters significantly - assuming 1°C wide bucket (20.0-20.9°C)
  • High pressure system expected to bring above-average warmth

Analysis

2 agents · 0.0s total