Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 3?

“The long-term average daily high temperature for early April (around the 3rd) in London is 12-13°C, which directly aligns with the target temperature of 12°C.. Long-range forecasts from the Met Office indicate the possibility of drier, settled conditions in southeast UK, including London, during early April due to high pressure influence. This suggests temperatures could remain near or slightly above normal, making 12°C a plausible outcome..”

“Statistical Improbability of Exact Matches: The bull conflates the historical *average* with the *frequency of the mode*. Temperature is a continuous variable; even if the mean is exactly 12.5°C with a standard deviation of 3°C, the probability mass within a single 1-degree bin (e.g., 12.0°C to 12.9°C) mathematically maxes out around 13-15%. The bull's 45% estimate is statistically absurd.. Forecast Range Dilution: Current forecasts for the April 3 period predict a range of 12-14°C. This means 13°C and 14°C are equally viable outcomes. Furthermore, 4-day forecasts typically carry an error margin of ±1.5°C to ±2.0°C, spreading the probability mass across at least 4 to 5 different degree bins..”