Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 8?
Polymarket · 48d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.76
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
80%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
20%
Key Factors
- April mean high in KL is ~33°C, making 32°C plausible but slightly below average
- Recent forecasts trending toward 34°C shift distribution away from 32°C
- Afternoon thunderstorms could suppress highs but haven't been doing so recently
- 1°C bucket probability in a ~1.5°C SD distribution is inherently around 15-25%
- Wide bid-ask spread ($0.13) eliminates any small edge
- 3 days out means forecast uncertainty is still significant
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total