Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on March 31?
Polymarket · 53d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.90
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
88%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
12%
Key Factors
- ECMWF/GFS models favor 15-16°C, below 17°C
- AccuWeather forecasts exactly 17°C, providing some upside probability
- Resolution requires exact 17°C from NOAA integer recording
- Forecast uncertainty (SD ~2°C) gives ~10-15% chance of hitting exactly 17°C
- Market spread of $0.04 eliminates any marginal edge
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total