Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 7?

Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.73
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

80%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
20%
Key Factors
  • Cold front passage April 5-6 bringing below-average temperatures
  • Forecast consensus low-to-mid 70s — 72-73°F is plausible but likely below the forecast mean
  • 2°F bin is narrow — any specific bin has limited probability
  • Forecast uncertainty (SD ~3-4°F) spreads probability across many bins
  • Resolution at Hobby Airport specifically via Wunderground

Analysis

2 agents · 0.0s total