Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 7?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.73
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
80%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
20%
Key Factors
- Cold front passage April 5-6 bringing below-average temperatures
- Forecast consensus low-to-mid 70s — 72-73°F is plausible but likely below the forecast mean
- 2°F bin is narrow — any specific bin has limited probability
- Forecast uncertainty (SD ~3-4°F) spreads probability across many bins
- Resolution at Hobby Airport specifically via Wunderground
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total