Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 9?
Polymarket · 46d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.96
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
98%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
2%
Key Factors
- 3-day forecast shows 79°F, roughly 10°F above the target range
- Historical average high is ~78°F, also well above the 68-69°F range
- A 2°F bin 10°F below the forecast has very low probability (~2%)
- 3-day forecast RMSE is typically 3-4°F, making a 10°F miss extremely unlikely
- No edge over market price of $0.03 after spread costs
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total