Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 5?
Polymarket · 48d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.80
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
90%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
10%
Key Factors
- 2°F bin is narrow - inherently low probability for any specific bin
- Forecast consensus mid-60s puts 68-69°F in the upper tail but not extreme
- Historical April 5 average high ~60°F, well below 68-69°F
- Day-ahead forecast uncertainty (SD ~3-5°F) determines bin probability
- Station-specific microclimate at Buckley SFB adds minor uncertainty
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total