Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 7?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.71
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
78%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
22%
Key Factors
- NWS/model consensus forecast centers on 72-73°F, above the 70-71°F bin
- Historical base rate for this 2°F bin is ~12%
- Recent cooling trend provides some upward adjustment from base rate
- Normal distribution around 73°F forecast gives ~20-22% probability for 70-71°F
- Market at 29% appears slightly overpriced for YES
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total