Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 7?
Polymarket · 46d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.96
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
97%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
3%
Key Factors
- Forecast consensus of ~73°F is 6°F above the 66-67°F target range
- 66-67°F is approximately 2 standard deviations below the forecast
- Narrow 2°F bin makes exact landing very unlikely even if forecast busts
- Historical base rate for highs ≤67°F in early April Dallas is <5%
- No significant cooling signals or frontal passages expected on April 7
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total