Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 7?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.74
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
78%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
22%
Key Factors
- Cool Canadian air mass with northerly winds suppressing temperatures well below normal
- NWS/ensemble guidance: 36-41°F range, with 40-41°F at the warm end
- Key uncertainty: afternoon cloud cover persistence vs partial clearing
- 2°F bin width means even within the forecast range, any single bin has limited probability
- Market price appears fairly priced given available forecast information
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total