Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 2?

“While 40-41°F is below the normal high of 53.7°F for April 2, it is not unprecedented for Chicago to experience significantly colder temperatures in early April. The lowest daily high ever recorded on April 2 was 30°F in 1936, demonstrating that temperatures in the low 40s are well within the historical range of possibilities, albeit on the colder end.. Chicago's weather in early April is characterized by significant variability. A high of 40-41°F, while below average, falls within the plausible range of early spring weather patterns, which can include cold snaps..”

“Extreme Precision Required: The market requires the high temperature to fall exactly within a narrow 2-degree Fahrenheit band (40-41°F). Even if a cold snap occurs, the high could easily land at 38-39°F or 42-43°F, resulting in a NO resolution.. Base Rate Improbability: The historical range for April 2 spans 52 degrees (30°F to 82°F). A 2-degree band covers less than 4% of the historical range. Assuming a normal distribution with a mean of 53.7°F, a 2-degree bin located roughly 13 degrees below the mean has a base rate probability of roughly 3%..”