Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 7?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.69
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
82%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
18%
Key Factors
- Forecasts center around 38-40°F, bracketing the target range
- 2°F window is narrow relative to typical forecast error (~3-4°F SD)
- Sunny skies with light winds could push temps slightly above forecast
- NWS 'near 40°F' suggests the high might exceed 39°F
- AccuWeather's 38°F forecast supports the lower end of the range
- Resolution depends on Weather Underground's reported integer high at O'Hare
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total