Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 9?
Polymarket · 46d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.91
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
93%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
7%
Key Factors
- AccuWeather forecasts 30.6°C, well above 26°C
- Alternative model shows 27°C, still above 26°C
- Recent warm conditions (April 4 at ~29°C) support higher forecasts
- 3-day forecast errors typically 1-2°C, making 4-5°C miss unlikely
- Historical April highs average ~22°C but can reach 30°C in warm spells
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total