Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 2?
Polymarket · 51d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.71
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
75%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
25%
Key Factors
- Forecast models cluster around 21-23°C with modal value near 21.5-22°C
- Wunderground reporting precision (integer vs decimal) is critical
- Overcast/rain conditions provide slight downward pressure on highs
- BBC forecast of 21°C vs CMA forecast of 22°C creates uncertainty
- Only ~25% probability of landing on any single integer in a 3-4°C range
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total