Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 2?
Polymarket · 51d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.91
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
91%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
9%
Key Factors
- All major forecast sources project 21-23°C, not 20°C
- Historical April averages cluster at 21-22°C
- Rain/overcast conditions already factored into forecasts
- Exact integer temperature outcomes are inherently low-probability events
- Market price of 10% appears well-calibrated to the evidence
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total