Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on April 7?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.73
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
82%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
18%
Key Factors
- Current NWP models forecast ~15°C high, slightly below the 16°C target
- Historical early April averages at Gimhae are 16-18°C, so 16°C is within normal range
- Cloud cover and precipitation chance add downside risk to temperature
- Single-degree bin probability is inherently low (~15-20% even when centered on that value)
- Forecast uncertainty of ~2°C means 16°C is plausible but not the most likely outcome
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total