Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 7?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.69
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
78%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
22%
Key Factors
- Forecast range of 20-22°C centers near 21°C but with significant spread
- Storm/frontal activity creates additional uncertainty in peak temperature
- Resolution at Ezeiza airport (potentially cooler than city center forecasts)
- Any single 1°C bin has inherently low probability (~15-25%)
- Market at 0.30 appears slightly overpriced vs my 0.22 estimate but edge is thin
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total