Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 5?

“Forecast models, specifically those cited in the research, cluster around 19-21°C, indicating that 20°C has a notable probability within these ensembles. This suggests that 20°C is a highly plausible outcome given current atmospheric conditions.. The recent cooling trend, with temperatures dropping from 29°C on April 3 to a forecasted 22-23°C on April 4, suggests a stabilization of temperatures. If southerly winds and cloud cover persist as indicated by SMN forecasts, this stabilization could very well land at exactly 20°C..”

“Consensus forecasts from SMN and Tiempo3 explicitly predict a maximum of 21°C, not 20°C. The bull is cherry-picking the lower bound of the 19-22°C ensemble range rather than the median expectation.. Base rates for hitting an exact 1-degree temperature band are structurally low (historically 5-10%). Even if the forecast was exactly 20°C, normal meteorological variance (±1.5°C) caps the probability of a perfect hit at roughly 25-30%. With a 21°C forecast, the probability of hitting 20°C is significantly lower..”