Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 7?
Polymarket · 46d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.94
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
92%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
8%
Key Factors
- Forecast consensus centers on 20-21°C, 2-3°C above the 18°C target
- Exactly 18°C requires a specific 1°C bin hit, which is inherently low probability
- Recent cooling (April 5 at 18-19°C) provides slight support but forecasts already account for this
- Overcast/rain conditions could cap heating but forecasts already incorporate this
- Historical base rate for exactly 18°C on April days is ~5-10%
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total