Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 4?

“While current forecasts like tiempo3.com predict a maximum of 23°C, they also show variability, with temperatures around 18°C during the 06:00-09:00 timeframe. This leaves open the possibility for 18°C to be the exact peak if factors like cloud cover or wind suppress the later peak.. Early April historical data indicates that temperatures can occasionally dip to the 18°C range during transitional periods, as suggested by climate-data.org for nearby days. This demonstrates that 18°C is within the plausible range for the time of year, even if not the most common peak..”

“Forecast Divergence: Current meteorological models forecast a high of 23°C for April 4. A 5°C forecast error just four days out is a severe tail event, as 4-day temperature forecasts typically have a mean absolute error of only 1.5°C to 2.0°C.. Meteorological Fallacy: The bull argues that morning temperatures of 18°C could become the daily high if clouds suppress daytime heating. This ignores diurnal temperature cycles; for temperatures to flatline from 09:00 onwards requires an extreme, anomalous weather event (like a severe daytime cold front) that is entirely absent from current models..”