Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on April 6?
Polymarket · 47d ago
RejectedREJECTED NO · $0.95
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
95%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
5%
Key Factors
- Forecast models converge on 19-21°C, well above 17°C
- Historical base rate for exactly 17°C in early April is <5%
- Cold front provides some downside risk but not enough per models
- Single integer resolution means probability is spread across many possible values
- Market appears fairly priced at 5%
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total