Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 7?
Polymarket · 47d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.76
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
78%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
22%
Key Factors
- Forecast models cluster around 16°C high, making 17°C plausible but not the most likely single-degree outcome
- Ambiguity in resolution criteria (exact range definition) creates significant uncertainty
- 1-day forecast uncertainty (SD ~2-3°C) means 17°C is within reasonable range
- Historical average (~18-20°C) is higher than forecast, suggesting possible upward surprise
- Northerly winds and cloud cover create downward pressure on temperatures
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total