Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 7?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.81
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
82%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
18%
Key Factors
- Forecast mean ~16°C, slightly above the 15°C target
- Next-day forecast uncertainty (SD ~1.5°C) spreads probability across multiple bins
- Below-normal temperatures expected due to northerly winds
- Historical average of ~20°C is well above 15°C but current weather pattern is anomalous
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total