Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on April 2?
Polymarket · 51d ago
SettledBUY NO · $0.76
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
90%
P(NO)
NO
Superforecaster
10%
Key Factors
- NWS forecast of 84°F is 2-3°F below target range
- AccuWeather forecast of 82°F is 4-5°F below target range
- Narrow 2°F target window inherently has low probability
- Typical 1-2 day forecast error SD of ~3-4°F means 86-87 is in the tail
- Recent warm pattern (89°F on March 31) provides slight upward bias but forecasts should account for this
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total