Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 8?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.90
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
88%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
12%
Key Factors
- Narrow 2°F temperature bin makes YES inherently unlikely (~10-15% base rate)
- April 8 is a transitional day between cold front (low-mid 70s) and warmup (upper 70s/low 80s by April 9-10)
- One forecast source projects 82°F high, placing the forecast near the target bin
- Forecast uncertainty 2 days out (σ≈3-4°F) spreads probability across many bins
- Resolution station is Austin-Bergstrom, which may differ slightly from Camp Mabry-based forecasts
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total