Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 6?
Polymarket · 47d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.79
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
82%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
18%
Key Factors
- Model consensus centers on 72-73°F, making 74-75°F slightly above the expected peak
- Post-cold front cooling limits upside potential
- 2°F bin is narrow — even if forecast is close, exact bin probability is inherently low
- Partly sunny skies and light winds could allow some warming above 73°F but uncertain
- Forecast uncertainty (SD ~2-3°F) places 74-75°F in the plausible but not most-likely range
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total