Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 2?
Polymarket · 52d ago
SettledBUY NO · $0.73
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
90%
P(NO)
NO
Superforecaster
10%
Key Factors
- NWS forecast centers on 83°F, 2-3°F above the 80-81°F bin
- Very narrow 2°F bin makes exact landing unlikely
- Stable ridge pattern with low precip risk reduces forecast uncertainty
- 1-day forecast error standard deviation typically 2-3°F
- Market appears to overweight the possibility of cooler-than-forecast outcome
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total