Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 9?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.91
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
92%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
8%
Key Factors
- Atlanta April climatological average high is 71-73°F, making 66-67°F below average but not rare.
- Post-cold front cooling may lower highs slightly but most forecasts center on 68-72°F.
- A 2°F bin is inherently narrow, limiting probability regardless of forecast.
- Multiple forecast sources show wide spread (66-75°F), with only one at 66°F.
- Market price of 7% is well-calibrated for this narrow temperature bin.
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total