Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 7?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.91
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
88%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
12%
Key Factors
- MGM forecast of 16°C and global models at 17-18°C place the central estimate above 15°C
- Esenboğa Airport may be 1-2°C cooler than city forecasts, partially offsetting
- Historical early April highs average 14-16°C with significant variability
- Exact integer temperature matching inherently has low probability (~10-20% per degree)
- Cloudy conditions may cap heating but are already factored into the 16°C MGM forecast
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total