Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 9?
Polymarket · 46d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.95
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
91%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
9%
Key Factors
- Historical average high ~15-16°C in early April Ankara
- Normal distribution around mean gives ~9% for 13°C bucket
- Forecast consensus slightly warmer than 13°C
- Exact integer matching is low probability by nature
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total