Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 9?

“Historical April data shows that highs below 12°C do occur in approximately 10% of early April days in Ankara, meaning a 10°C high is not physically impossible — cold snaps with persistent cloud cover and precipitation can suppress temperatures well below the 16°C average.. Weather25 forecasts mention the possibility of 5 snowy days in the next 14 days from early April, indicating that cold air intrusions into central Anatolia remain a plausible scenario that could drive highs down to the 10°C range..”

“The market resolves to a TEMPERATURE RANGE containing 10°C, not exactly 10°C — but even so, the entire distribution of April 9 Ankara highs is centered around 15-16°C, making the 10°C range (likely 9.5-10.5°C or similar bin) an extreme tail event with <5% base rate probability.. All current forecasts (AccuWeather, Weather25, climate-data.org) converge on 15-18°C for April 9, 2026 — this is not a single data point but a multi-model consensus including ECMWF/GFS ensembles. A 5-6°C departure from consensus forecast with only 2.4 days to expiry is extraordinarily unlikely; forecast skill at 2-day range is high..”