Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?

“The Bank of Russia is in the middle of an aggressive easing cycle — seven consecutive cuts from the 21% peak in October 2024 down to 15% in March 2026, with the April 1 discussion summary explicitly stating 'overheated demand is cooling even faster than assumed in the February forecast, making room for cutting the key rate.'. Inflation dynamics strongly support another cut: underlying inflation (the measure the CBR emphasizes) is already at 4–5% annualized per the April 1 summary; household inflation expectations fell to a 6-month low of 12.9% in April (from 13.4% in March); observable inflation dropped to 14.6% from 15.6%..”

“The bull case relies on multiple unverified or likely unreliable claims from the research packet, and some are internally inconsistent. Most notably, the packet says the April 24, 2026 meeting is followed by another key-rate meeting on May 7, 2026; that is not a standard Bank of Russia rate-meeting cadence and strongly suggests parts of the source compilation are garbled. If the event calendar in the packet is shaky, confidence in the quoted discussion summaries, analyst polls, and market-odds details should drop materially.. Even accepting the easing-cycle premise, 'more cuts later in 2026' does not imply 'cut at this specific April meeting.' Central banks frequently pause after a string of consecutive cuts to reassess lags, especially when policy is still deeply restrictive and prior easing has not fully transmitted. A market priced near 96% YES is effectively treating a pause as almost impossible, which is structurally too extreme for a discretionary central-bank decision under geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty..”