Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?

“Reuters survey of 30 economists shows 26 forecast no rate changes through 2026, with only 3 expecting any hike to 2.75% by year-end — overwhelming expert consensus for hold.. ING Research's base case is a JULY rate hike, not May, explicitly stating a May hike is only on the table 'if the Middle East situation worsens' — meaning the consensus view of even the more hawkish analysts is for a May hold..”

“The bull's strongest point—'26 of 30 economists forecast no rate changes through 2026'—is weak evidence for this specific May meeting because it is a year-end path forecast, not a meeting-level probability. A forecast of 'no change through 2026' can be stale within weeks, and it is especially poor at pricing tail risk over a single binary event 2.9 days away.. Several quantitative claims in the research appear unsupported or likely fabricated from inaccessible underlying studies, including '85% of such instances,' '78% of comparable cases,' '89% of meetings,' '92% of meetings,' '127 policy meetings since 2010,' 'average of 2.3 meetings,' and '76% probability after seven holds.' The cited sources shown do not obviously contain these custom backtests. Those numbers should be discounted rather than treated as hard evidence for YES..”