Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?

“The Bank of Israel just cut rates by 25bp on May 25, 2026 to 3.75%, and its recent pattern in the current easing cycle has been to alternate cuts with pauses — January cut, February hold, March hold, May cut — making a July hold consistent with established Committee behavior.. The June CPI release is scheduled for July 15, AFTER the July 6 meeting. The Committee will not have fresh inflation data to justify back-to-back cuts, and the Bank has repeatedly emphasized data dependence in Governor Yaron's March 30 remarks ('there are no guarantees regarding the interest rate')..”

“The bull's core 'alternating cuts with pauses' thesis is structurally weak and overfit to a tiny sample. The cited sequence is not a stable alternation pattern at all: it was cut (Jan), hold (Feb), hold (Mar), cut (May). Two consecutive holds already break any simple every-other-meeting rhythm, so using this as evidence for a July hold is pattern-mining from 4 observations, not a robust base rate.. The absence of June CPI before the July 6 meeting does not uniquely favor a hold. Central banks are forward-looking and already have the same May inflation, expectations, FX, and activity data that justified the May cut. If anything, when inflation is inside target and expectations are easing, lack of new upside inflation data removes one of the few reasons to delay. 'No fresh CPI' is symmetric or mildly pro-cut, not clearly pro-hold..”