Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?

Polymarket · 55d ago
SkippedSKIP NO · $0.97
Reasoning

Agent Consensus

100%
P(NO)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
0%
Key Factors
  • Only 1.8 days remain until deadline
  • ISW maps show no confirmed Russian advances into Kostyantynivka as of March 28
  • Ukrainian forces actively defending and repelling infiltrations
  • Historical urban advance rate of 15-70m/day makes capture in 2 days virtually impossible
  • No signs of imminent Ukrainian collapse in this sector

Analysis

2 agents · 0.0s total