Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

“Progressive Bulgaria, led by Rumen Radev, holds a commanding polling lead at 32.1% (CAM, April 14) and 33.6% (Sova Harris, April 2-6), nearly double the second-place GERB at ~19%. This massive lead makes Progressive Bulgaria overwhelmingly likely to win the most seats and receive the first mandate to form a government.. Prediction markets on Polymarket as of April 15, 2026 price Radev at 88.5% probability of becoming the next PM, with $140,518 in trading volume. The next closest candidates are caretaker PM Andrey Gyurov at 5.4% and Boyko Borissov at 3.2%. This reflects the aggregated judgment of informed traders with real money at stake..”

“Radev is a former PRESIDENT, not a typical parliamentary party leader — his role as PM would be constitutionally and politically unusual. In Bulgaria's parliamentary system, the PM typically comes from the largest party's parliamentary leadership, not a presidential figure. Radev's transition from president to PM candidate is structurally novel and faces institutional resistance.. The bull's coalition math is optimistic and unverified. Adding Progressive Bulgaria (~32%) + Democratic Bulgaria (~12%) + PP-DB (~11%) assumes these are separate, additive blocs, but PP-DB and Democratic Bulgaria overlap significantly — they have historically been allied or merged. The actual combined seat count may fall short of a 121-seat majority in the 240-seat Narodno Sabranie, forcing negotiations with DPS or other parties who may refuse Radev..”