Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?

“The Sova Harris poll (April 2-6, 2026) showed a 14.6 percentage point gap (PB 33.6% vs GERB 19%), which is just below the 15% threshold. A modest polling error of less than 1 point in PB's favor or against GERB would push the margin into the 15-20% range. Polling errors of this magnitude are extremely common.. Progressive Bulgaria dominates social media with over 1.3 million memberships across the 30 largest pro-Radev Facebook groups and over 90 million TikTok views on #rumenradev. This disproportionate digital reach could translate into higher-than-polled turnout among younger, progressive voters, widening the margin beyond what traditional polls capture..”

“The most recent CAM poll (April 14, 2026) shows a margin of only 12.7 percentage points (PB 32.1% vs GERB 19.4%), which is 2.3 points BELOW the 15% floor of the target range. To resolve YES, polls would need to underestimate PB's margin by at least 2.3 points — this is not a 'modest' error but a directional systematic miss.. The Gallup poll from March 30 showed only a 4.8 percentage point margin (PB 28.4% vs GERB 23.4%), which is dramatically below the 15-20% target range. The wide variance across polling firms (4.8 to 14.6 point margins) signals high uncertainty, but the central tendency across polls is well below 15%, not just barely below it. Averaging the three cited polls gives roughly a 10.7 point margin — solidly outside the target range..”