Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win 95 or more seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

“The most recent Sova Harris poll (April 2-6, 2026) projects Progressive Bulgaria at 33.6% of the vote and 94 seats — just ONE seat short of the 95-seat threshold. This means even a marginal outperformance of ~0.3-0.5 percentage points above the poll projection would push PB over 95 seats.. Progressive Bulgaria is the commanding front-runner with a massive 14.6-point lead over second-place GERB (33.6% vs 19%). Parties with such dominant leads frequently outperform their polling numbers due to bandwagon effects and strategic voting by undecided voters who want to back a winner..”

“The most recent and highest-quality poll (Sova Harris, April 2-6) projects exactly 94 seats — ONE seat below the 95-seat threshold. This means the market is essentially asking whether PB outperforms its best poll by at least 1 seat. Polling error cuts both ways, and underperformance is equally likely as outperformance.. The bull's 'upward momentum' argument is statistically fragile. Two data points (Myara March 7-16 at 30.8% and Sova Harris April 2-6 at 33.6%) do not constitute a reliable trend — they could reflect methodological differences between polling firms, different sampling frames, or house effects rather than genuine momentum. Extrapolating a linear trend from two polls is a classic forecasting error..”