Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

“OpenAI's most recent private post-money valuation is $852B (March 2026, $122B round per OpenAI blog). The trajectory from $86B (2024) → $500B (Oct 2025) → $852B (March 2026) shows accelerating step-ups, making a further step into the $1.25T-$1.5T band plausible if an IPO occurs.. Reporting indicates advisers and management are explicitly anchoring on a $1T+ headline valuation (NYT June 25, 2026), and the band $1.25T-$1.5T sits naturally above that psychological anchor — exactly where bankers often price premium mega-cap IPOs to leave first-day pop room..”

“The dominant NO path is structural, not valuation-specific: the market resolves NO if no IPO occurs by Dec. 31, 2026, and the pre-gathered research itself says recent timing reports are UNVERIFIED and point to possible delay into 2027. With only a narrow window left, 'no IPO' is a much higher-probability outcome than 'IPO occurs and lands inside a tight band.'. Even conditional on an IPO, the target band is unusually narrow relative to the uncertainty. The band spans only about $250B, while the last cited private valuation is $852B, so YES requires both a very large uplift from private pricing and precise first-day closing behavior. Large IPOs have wide dispersion from offer price to first close; this kind of exact-hit market should trade below generic 'IPO above $1T' markets because both undershoot and overshoot resolve NO..”