Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
Polymarket · 47d ago
RejectedBUY YES · $0.92
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
96%
P(YES)
SKIPPED
Superforecaster
96%
Key Factors
- Already at 21 posts — floor is above 20, eliminating downside risk
- Need 19+ more posts in 1.5 days to exceed 39 — roughly 3-4x normal rate
- No crisis or major event catalysts identified for posting surge
- Historical max weekly count of 28 is well below 40 threshold
- Market already priced at 92 cents, leaving minimal edge
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total