Will Netflix Inc (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?

“Netflix has beaten earnings in 8 of the last 9 quarters (89% beat rate), with the sole miss in Q3 2025 entirely attributable to a one-time $619 million Brazilian tax charge — not operational underperformance. Adjusting for that anomaly, Netflix's operational beat rate is effectively 100% over the trailing 9 quarters.. Netflix has a well-documented conservative guidance culture. Daloopa's analysis of 9 quarters shows the company consistently beats its own revenue guidance by an average of +1.0%, and has historically delivered larger EPS surprises (e.g., +$0.79 in Q1 2024, +$1.03 in Q1 2025). The Q1 2026 consensus EPS of $0.76 matches management's own guidance, meaning the bar is set at the level Netflix itself chose — a level it historically exceeds..”

“The bull's '89% beat rate' is misleading: the consensus EPS estimate of $0.76 MATCHES Netflix's own guidance exactly. When a company sets guidance equal to consensus, the historical beat rate against company guidance is not the same as beating the Street consensus — analysts may have already incorporated upside into their $0.76-$0.79 range, meaning the bar is not as low as the bull implies.. The bull claims Q3 2025 miss was 'entirely' due to the Brazilian tax charge, but this is a post-hoc rationalization. A $619M tax liability is a real business risk, not a pure accounting anomaly — it reflects regulatory exposure that could recur. Adjusting it away inflates the beat rate artificially to '100% operational' which is cherry-picking..”