Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings?

“Morgan Stanley has beaten consensus EPS estimates in ALL four trailing quarters with an average surprise of 18.19%. Q3 2025 saw a massive 33.97% beat, Q1 2025 a 16.59% beat, Q4 2025 an 11.2% beat, and Q2 2025 a 7.58% beat. This is an extraordinarily consistent pattern of outperformance.. The current consensus EPS estimate is $3.08, which is already above the $3.00 resolution threshold. This means Morgan Stanley could actually MISS the Street consensus by up to 2.6% and still resolve YES. Given the historical average surprise of +18.19%, even a significant underperformance relative to trend would still clear the $3.00 bar..”

“The resolution threshold is $3.00 GAAP EPS, not the Street consensus of $3.08. While the bull correctly notes this provides a buffer, GAAP EPS can diverge significantly from adjusted EPS due to one-time charges, litigation reserves, restructuring costs, or mark-to-market losses on investments. Morgan Stanley has historically reported GAAP figures that differ from adjusted figures, and any unexpected charge could push GAAP EPS below $3.00 even if adjusted EPS beats.. The macro environment in Q1 2026 is materially different from prior quarters. Tariff uncertainty, equity market volatility (S&P 500 declined significantly in early April 2026), and credit spread widening could have impaired wealth management fee revenues, reduced AUM-linked fees, and created mark-to-market losses on investment portfolios. The bull's historical beat rate was achieved in a more benign environment..”