Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?
Polymarket · 47d ago
SettledBUY NO · $0.05
Reasoning
Agent Consensus
96%
P(NO)
NO
Superforecaster
4%
Key Factors
- February 2026 CPI was only 0.3% MoM - far below 0.8% threshold
- Historical base rate of >=0.8% MoM is <5% in low-inflation environments
- Market priced at 95% YES with $98K volume suggests strong informed consensus
- Potential tariff implementation in early 2026 could cause unprecedented price shock
- FOMC raised inflation projections notably in March 2026
- No access to real-time CPI nowcasts that market participants may have
Analysis
2 agents · 0.0s total