Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?

“Micron's fiscal Q2 2026 total revenue hit a record $23.86B (up 75% sequentially, 196% YoY), demonstrating the company is in an unprecedented memory upcycle where extreme segment outcomes are possible (source: Micron Q2 2026 release).. Industry research indicates NAND is in severe supply shortage: Neumonda forecasts >40% global MLC NAND capacity drop in 2026, Samsung is exiting MLC NAND production by June 2026, and Micron management itself stated NAND demand is 'significantly in excess of available supply for the foreseeable future' (Blocks & Files)..”

“The bull case depends on an unproven mix assumption. Even if Micron's total Q2 FY2026 revenue was $23.86B, this market requires NAND alone to exceed $8.0B, implying roughly one-third of company revenue from NAND in a quarter where Micron's economics may have been disproportionately driven by DRAM/HBM. The research itself admits there is no direct recent segment-level NAND figure in the accessible materials, so the YES thesis is largely interpolation rather than evidence.. The research likely contains fabricated or at least highly suspect company financial figures. A quarter with $23.86B revenue and $13.79B GAAP net income at Micron would imply extraordinary margins far beyond normal semiconductor memory-cycle ranges; combined with a claimed 75% sequential revenue jump from $13.64B, this is an extreme outlier that should not be accepted without primary verification. Likewise, analyst price targets of $1,200-$1,300 and a 174% stock rise in 2026 are obvious red flags. If these inputs are unreliable, the bull's entire scaling argument weakens sharply..”