Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B?

“Micron's own Q2 FY2026 results (per IR transcript) showed record DRAM revenue of $18.8B at 79% of total revenue. Q3 guidance per multiple sources is ~$33.5B (±$750M) total revenue. Applying the Q2 DRAM mix of 79% to the midpoint guidance yields ~$26.5B in DRAM revenue — directly above the $26B threshold.. S&P Global Market Intelligence reports sell-side consensus DRAM revenue for Q3 at $27.4B, which is $1.4B above the $26B threshold. The mean forecast itself sits above the line, meaning the market is asking whether the actual result falls in the bottom ~$1.4B of the consensus distribution..”

“The bull's core arithmetic is much weaker than it looks: 79% DRAM mix was a single-quarter observation from Q2, not guided for Q3. To clear $26B on $33.5B total revenue, Micron needs roughly 77.6% DRAM mix; that is only slightly below Q2's 79%, so even a modest mix shift toward NAND/other revenue is enough to push DRAM below the line. When the threshold depends on a 1-2 point segment-mix assumption, that is not robust evidence for YES.. A large share of the bullish evidence is not primary-source-confirmed. The research itself flags the alleged Q3 total revenue guidance, the $27.4B DRAM consensus, and Wedbush's ~65% blended ASP increase as PROJECTED or UNVERIFIED with no primary source found. Those figures may be directionally plausible, but they are not hard facts. In particular, the bull relies heavily on a precise $27.4B consensus and extreme price claims that are not verified in the materials..”