Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

“Milthorpe has demonstrated extraordinary momentum: she went from a non-factor to 19.96% primary vote and 43.81% 2PP in the 2025 federal election — a +43.81 percentage point 2PP swing against a sitting Liberal deputy leader. By-elections historically amplify anti-government/anti-establishment swings, and she starts from a much stronger base this time.. Labor has formally withdrawn from the contest. Polling shows that when asked how they would vote absent a Labor candidate, 40% chose Milthorpe vs only 5.6% for One Nation — meaning the bulk of orphaned Labor/centre-left voters consolidate behind her, which is directly reflected in her jump from ~20% to ~23-30% in current polling..”

“The bull's core 'momentum' argument is overstated and partly framed with misleading arithmetic. Milthorpe's 43.81% 2CP in 2025 is not evidence she is near victory in a fragmented 2026 by-election field; it was a head-to-head count against an incumbent Liberal after preference consolidation. In 2026, the key hurdle is making the final two and then winning preferences. A prior 2CP against a single Liberal opponent does not transfer mechanically to a four-way contest involving One Nation and the Nationals.. The best available poll in the research cuts against YES, not for it: Milthorpe trails One Nation on primary vote (23.3% vs 28.7%), and even after allocating undecideds she still trails. More importantly, the same research cites a modeled One Nation–Independent final of 52.7% to 47.3% against Milthorpe. Bulls cannot selectively cite the Labor-withdrawal question while ignoring the actual vote-intention and preference model, which both show her losing..”